Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
